Eight billion dollars rides on autumn colors.
That’s what fall foliage tourism generates in New England alone each year. But drought conditions are turning 2024’s display into something unpredictable. Some trees blaze with brilliant reds and oranges. Others skip the show entirely, dropping brown leaves straight to the ground.
I’m tracking the patchwork effect across viewing regions.
Sugar maples are significantly less drought-tolerant than oaks. That matters because maples produce autumn’s most intense colors. In the Southeast, tulip poplars normally erupt in orange and yellow when rains are normal. This year, they’re browning up and dropping leaves. No color at all.
A Shorter Window
Peak foliage typically lasts seven to ten days in any location. Drought is making that window even shorter.
Water-stressed trees accelerate color change to conserve resources, or delay it entirely depending on severity. Either way, you get inconsistency within the same forest, sometimes the same hillside.
For travelers, this breaks the reliable patterns. What worked last year won’t work this year. Northern regions are seeing earlier peaks, but southern areas remain unpredictable.
Planning Around Uncertainty
The $8 billion economy built around leaf-peeping depends on timing and quality. Wedding venues, local businesses, and regional economies all plan around predictable color displays.
Flexibility matters. If one location looks dull, experts recommend traveling to different elevations or regions within the same day. For those who miss northern peaks, driving south extends the season, with Mid-Atlantic regions not reaching peak until November.
Climate warming has raised fall temperatures in 237 U.S. cities by an average of 2.8°F from 1970 through 2024. Drought conditions are becoming more frequent and severe. The autumn we expect is shifting beneath our feet.
Which means planning differently.
Check local park outlooks before locking in dates. Build buffer days into your itinerary. Have backup locations ready. Northern New England peaks in early October, southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic hit their stride mid-to-late October.
The displays are still there. You just need to chase them.